🇹🇷

ECAA Decision Tracker

Turkey · Settlement & extension queue
Share on WhatsApp

Find your place in the queue

Select your application month to see your estimated decision date.

Timeline: when each month clears

← swipe to scroll the timeline →
Each bar shows the estimated date range when that application month will be fully cleared. The left edge starts when decisions begin reaching that month; the right edge is when that month finishes clearing.

When each month clears

Settings

Family size
1 :
45% main applicants · 2.20 avg family size
Historical: 2025 · 1.23   2024 · 1.16
This splits the queue into main applicants and dependants for display. It does not move your date: decision pace is measured in total cases per working day, so scaling the queue and the pace together cancels out.

Sources & methodology

Where the numbers come from
ILR (Indefinite Leave to Remain):Months up to March 2026 use a one-off FOI release (Annex B, 28 Feb 2026) that broke the queue down month by month. It was used once, to calibrate the shape; it is not a feed and no further FOI is assumed.
LTR (Leave to Remain):Home Office migration transparency data (VSI_01a), published quarterly and spread across the months in each quarter.
April 2026 onwards:No official figures exist yet — Q2 2026 transparency data has not been published. Those months carry forecast intake, held flat at the mean of the last six published months. They are marked est throughout.
What the community tracker is used for:Only two things: where the frontier sits, and how deep the straggler tail runs. Both are positions inside the sample, which is what a self-selected crowdsourced list can support. It never supplies a case count or a decisions-per-day rate.
Calculation detail

ILR: up to March 2026, undecided-per-month from FOI Annex B (28 Feb 2026), with March = WIP (5,612) − Annex B (4,466). April 2026 onwards is forecast intake.

LTR: VSI_01a quarterly totals ÷ 3; Sep 2025 −11% for pre-freeze decisions. Q3 2025 = 2,210 · Q4 = 1,109 · Q1 2026 = 560.

How a date is produced: the Home Office works the queue in application order, so the only thing forecast is how fast the frontier moves. Movement is measured against official queue density — a week spent crossing a heavy month clears more cases than one crossing a light month — which turns tracker observations into cases per working day. Those weekly rates are resampled in blocks to build 512 possible futures, each walked forward one working day at a time, and each drawing one straggler delay from the observed distribution. Your Likely date is the median of those 512; Best and Worst are the 10th and 90th percentile.

There is no capacity prior: nothing tilts the forecast toward a hoped-for speed-up. Nothing is projected past 30 June 2027 — beyond that the honest answer is "beyond the model horizon", not an invented date. Main applicants = total ÷ (1 + dep ratio) — estimated. Month clear dates = the last application day in that cohort; earlier applicants in the same month finish sooner.