Find your place in the queue
Select your application month and exact day to see a simulated decision range.
Which day did you apply?
Decisions are in progress around outlined dates
Month-end outlook
Simulated dates for the last covered application day in each month—not a claim that every case is cleared.
← swipe to inspect every month →
| Month | ILR | LTR | Main est. | Earlier | Likely | Allow extra time |
|---|
Ranges are p10–p90 across 512 paths resampling the available completed weekly rates. “Month-end” refers to the model position of the final covered application date.
Frontier and implied capacity
Daily evidence movement with 7- and 28-day density-weighted trends.
Your personal estimate history
The selected application date at the standard 1.25 dependant ratio.
Settings
Family size
1 :
This changes your queue volume only. Observed capacity remains calibrated at the standard 1.25 ratio.
Evidence model
Loading source coverage…
Sources & methodology
Where the numbers come from
Supplied cohort baseline: Monthly ILR and LTR queue totals from the supplied interface establish density. They are retained as a legacy baseline, not presented as independently verified official figures.
Community tracker: Recent substantially supported results establish relative frontier movement. Names, notes, raw rows and tracker URLs never enter public JSON.
Forecast paths: The model resamples up to eight contiguous completed Monday–Sunday rates and stops after 40 weeks.
How to interpret it
Frontier: The latest substantially supported application date in the main recent-result cluster. Older cases may still be waiting.
Implied capacity: Baseline monthly density crossed by observed frontier movement—not Home Office staff productivity.
Estimate range: Median and p10–p90 simulated dates. Undeclared exceptional future bank holidays are not modeled.
Community observations establish relative queue progress only. Estimates are informational and are not Home Office advice.